Welcome to HIRAAL INSTITUTE
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Hiraal Institute’s vision is to be the premier security research and analysis organisation that develops solutions to Horn of Africa’s security challenges to help make the region and the world more secure Read More
LATEST ARTICLES
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Somalia Map: Control and Influence
This map illustrates the current territorial dynamics in Somalia. It highlights areas held or contested by Al-Shabab, zones under Government control, and the presence of Islamic State (IS)pockets in Puntland. Shaded regions represent established control, while...
Somalia Security Situation (2020-2025)
This report provides an in-depth analysis of Somalia's security landscape based on over 8,000 recorded incidents from January 2020 through September 2025. The assessment covers three interconnected dimensions: Al-Shabaab's tactical evolution following the May 2022...
Escalation and Adaptation
This report examines the security dynamics in Somalia during President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's tenure from May 2022 to May 2024, with a particular focus on the trends in Al-Shabab attacks and the effectiveness of allied operations. It provides a comprehensive analysis...
The Price of Progress: Effects of the Clearing Operations on Businesses
This report offers an analytical assessment of the impact of the 18-month long clearing operations on businesses in Somalia. It draws on survey responses from over 100 professionals in the banking, telecommunications, transportation, and shipping industries operating...
Strategic Missteps and Tactical Failures: Reassessing the Somali Government’s Counterinsurgency Operations in Central Somalia
The recent counterinsurgency operation and subsequent withdrawal of forces by the Somali government in central Somalia has exposed several glaring deficiencies in strategic planning, military execution, and political alignment. Utilizing analytical lenses spanning...
Playing the Long Game: Exploring the relationship between Al-Shabab and civilians in areas beyond state control
As with many non-state armed groups, Al-Shabab’s relationship with civilians has been essential to its resilience and staying power. This report examines how the dynamics between Al-Shabab and civilians have differed and why, in three areas of prolonged Al-Shabab...
Locked and Loaded: The Dangers of Prematurely Lifting the Somali Arms Embargo
Executive Summary This report presents an in-depth examination of the potential consequences of lifting the arms embargo in Somalia. With a focus on both the national and international implications, our findings suggest caution and a nuanced approach towards this...
Somalia’s Shifting Sands: Unpacking The Tumultuous Times Of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s First Year
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the first year of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term, examining the complexity of Somalia's political, security, and regional landscape. Key issues of focus include the strained relationships...
The Las Anod Conflict
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The conflict in Las Anod, located in the Sool region of northern Somalia, is a multifaceted issue that encompasses historical, political, economic, and ethnic dimensions. The Dhulbahante clan, which is distinct from the Isaaq clan that dominates...
Governance Without Presence: The Somali Government’s Liberation Struggles
Somalia is at the onset of the second phase of offensive operations against the terrorist group Al-Shabaab (AS). This time the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is anticipated to draw the support of Front-Line States – Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya. This is during...