The allies continue to maintain a shaky handle on AS this quarter, but the group is trying to bolster its urban terrorism campaign. Its IED campaign seems to be picking up, but its direct military attacks seemed to be stalling.
Introduction
As a result of the pressure brought to bear on AS and IS-Somalia by the FGS, the FMS forces, and the international forces, the gains made in 2019 have been maintained to some extent into 2020. For instance, assassinations this quarter were 47; it was 33 the same time last year and 39 during the last quarter of 2019. Similarly, there were 46 direct military attacks by AS this quarter while there were 41 during the same time last year; however, there were 50 direct military raids by AS during the last quarter. As for IED attacks, there were 37 attacks this quarter; 74 the same time last year, and 62 the last quarter of the previous year. This suggests that the allies continue to retain the initiative while AS is forced into a more-defensive posture. This increasingly forces the group to invest its resources into urban assassinations and IED attacks.
| Incident | Jan-20 | Feb-20 | Mar-20 | Jan-19 | Feb-19 | Mar-19 |
| IED | 5 | 13 | 19 | 22 | 16 | 36 |
| Raid | 16 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 16 |
| Assassination | 12 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 3 | 12 |
| Hand Grenade | 6 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 4 |
| SVBIED | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| VBIED | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Ambush | 6 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Mortar Attack | 1 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| PB-IED | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed SVBIED | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
AN interactive map showing all the incidents and where they occurred can be found here:
This report was authored by Mohamed Mubarak. You can follow Mohamed on Twitter @somalianalyst and subscribe to his substack at https://onsomalia.substack.com/
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