The year 2019 saw the effect of allied response to Al-Shabab’s focus on assassinations in 2018, when it had ratcheted up assassinations and reduced direct military raids. The allied response led to a significant reduction in assassinations, SVBIEDs, massed military attacks, and complex attacks. However, this forced AS to instead focus on IED attacks and small-scale military attacks. By the end of 2019, allied efforts seemed to be drawing down, and AS accordingly responded by increasing its operations across the board.

Figure1: AS Attacks in 2019

Map showing the security incidents, where they occurred, and the actors responsible:

This report was authored by Mohamed Mubarak. You can follow Mohamed on Twitter @somalianalyst and subscribe to his substack at

Share this: