This report provides an in-depth analysis of Somalia’s security landscape based on over 8,000 recorded incidents from January 2020 through September 2025. The assessment covers three interconnected dimensions: Al-Shabaab’s tactical evolution following the May 2022 government offensive; the emergence of ISIS-Somalia and Puntland’s independent military campaign against it; and internal security challenges including security force misconduct and clan violence.
Key findings include:
Al-Shabaab increased its monthly attacks by 70% following the launch of the Liberation Operations in May 2022, shifting from urban terrorism to rural insurgency. While suicide bombings collapsed by 59% and assassinations declined by 31%, civilian targeting surged by 306% and attacks on SNA Special Forces increased by 1,764%.
The anticipated Phase Two (Black Lion) of the offensive never materialized. Political disputes between the Federal Government and regional states—particularly Puntland and Jubaland—diverted military resources away from the counter-terrorism mission. Al-Shabaab’s 2025 counteroffensive has now reversed virtually all territorial gains, recapturing Adan Yabaal, Moqokori, and Mahas.
Puntland’s independent Operation Hilaac against ISIS demonstrates that effective counter-terrorism remains possible when political will exists and resources are focused on actual threats. The campaign conducted 364 operations against ISIS positions in the Al-Miskad mountains, supported by UAE and US airstrikes.
Internal security challenges have escalated dramatically, with security force brutality incidents increasing fourteen-fold and clan violence averaging over 30 incidents per month in 2025.
The full report is here:
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