This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the first year of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term, examining the complexity of Somalia’s political, security, and regional landscape. Key issues of focus include the strained relationships between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Federal Member States (FMSs), the handling of the National Security Architecture (NSArch), and the challenges posed by the Al-Shabaab insurgency.
The year was marked by significant political instability and challenges in the security sector. Despite expectations for improved political stability and FGS- FMS relations, the administration’s approach fell short, particularly due to the exclusionary drafting of the NSArch, which risks alienating key FMSs.
The Al-Shabaab insurgency presents a growing challenge, with the group now more powerful and influential than in President Hassan Sheikh’s previous term. The government’s counterinsurgency campaign plans have been stalled by their unexpected commitment to aiding the Macawisley, extending the first phase of the campaign longer than initially planned.
The FGS’s attempt to interfere in Puntland’s local government elections has heightened tensions. This stance threatens to destabilize the region and may have broader implications for Somalia’s security and democratic processes.
The analysis also scrutinizes the administration’s appointments, indicating a trend towards rewarding political loyalty over merit. Such a practice risks undermining public trust in key institutions and could affect the government’s effectiveness in executing its responsibilities.
The impending withdrawal of ATMIS presents additional challenges, necessitating strategic adjustments to maintain security and stability. The upcoming year will be crucial in shaping the trajectory of Somalia’s political and security environment, with the government’s actions playing a defining role.
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